For many years I have blogged on the chances of having a nuclear power plant in Gippsland at almost zero (see here and here). Most of that near certainty was on the basis that governments, whatever their colour, would make decisions based on evidence. Unfortunately that is not so. In spite of all the evidence in favour of a rapid adoption of renewables the opposition Liberal National Party has gone full bore on the opposite – the adoption of nuclear energy in Australia and including a planned power station at Loy Yang.
On the basis of a LNP win at the next election and assuming the rapid and successful adoption of their nuclear plan the question of an accident at a Loy Yang nuclear plant can be posed. Whilst the chances of a Chernoble or Fukishima type accident are slim indeed, such an accident would make much of Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley uninhabitable. More likely are leaks of radioactive materials into the environment but the response to an event of this kind is still fairly drastic.
There are standard international procedures in place for action in the case of such events. A USA state’s (Maryland) advice on this is described as a “Plumed Exposure Pathway” under the heading “Emergency Planning Zones”. In a ten mile radius of a radioactive leak “evacuation or sheltering could be recommended”.) As the inner circle on the map above indicates this would apply to Traralgon, Morwell, Mid-Valley and Churchill.
The Maryland Paper also notes an “Ingestion Exposure Pathway” of “An approximate 50-mile radius around a nuclear power plant. Evacuation or sheltering of people is not expected beyond a 10-mile area. The safety of the food supply within the ingestion zone could become a concern. There could be internal exposure if you eat or drink contaminated products. Eating and drinking contaminated products could have harmful long-term health effects. State authorities, county authorities, farms, and food-related industries (including processing, transportation, and storage) would participate in a joint effort to identify and prevent contaminated food from reaching the public.”
The larger circle covers a substantial part of Gippsland including Sale, Rosedale, Yarram, Heyfield and Moe. Finally one of the big unknowns in any Loy Yang nuclear accident is the direction of the drift of the radioactive “plume exposure pathway”. As suggested by the broken lines above most likely it would be to the east – perhaps to Bairnsdale, Lakes or even further.
Currently some elements of the Nationals are running pathetic local ‘scare’ campaigns against solar farms. By comparison any ‘scare’ campaign against the nuclear proposals in Gippsland, and in particular of possible accidents, should be mother of them all.
*part of this blog was submitted to the Federal Parliamentary Inquiry on Nuclear Energy