The next Federal election in the Gippsland seat of Monash (formerly McMillan) appears likely to be an interesting rerun of the 1972 election with a few variations. In 1972 there were four ‘conservatives’ standing including a dis-endorsed sitting member, Liberal, National and DLP candidates. This effectively split the vote enabling the National candidate to eventually be elected on just 16.6% of the primary votes, highlighting the importance of preference flows.
In 2022 the current sitting member Russell Broadbent received 37.8% of the primaries but enough of the preferences of the minor parties to get him over the line. Otherwise the performances of the Climate independent Deb Leonard (10.7%) (see here and here) and a strong Green candidate Mat Morgan (9.9%) were exceptional. On the downside the Greens head office did a preference deal with the ALP and their preferences did not flow to Leonard as they should have if climate change was the most important issue.
Since then Broadbent has quit the Liberal party, although technically he lost a preselection challenge and was therefore dis-endorsed, and has since sat on the crossbench as an independent. Broadbent just announced he will recontest the upcoming contest as an independent. It appears the National Party will also run a candidate as they have previously done in these circumstances making what is commonly known as a ‘three cornered contest’. Both the Nationals and the Greens are yet to announce their candidates.
The current state of play compared to 1972 is interesting. Instead of a choice of four conservatives versus the ALP this time there will be two strong climate candidates along with a lukewarm ALP. Depending on the circumstances and the number of candidates –with the sitting member deciding to run again – there is no doubt that the spread of preferences will be crucial to the outcome. Hopefully the Greens will this time direct their preferences to Leonard and if she can achieve a primary vote higher than what Hewson got in 1972 she may be in with a good chance. The key to the outcome will be a groundswell of support for the independent coupled with strategic voting by both Greens and Labor supporters. Support Deb’s campaign if you can.