Author: Peter Gardner

The Blue Dot Global Perspective

In a photograph of planet Earth taken by the Voyager 1 space probe in 1990 from a distance of about 6 billion km, the Earth appears as a tiny blue dot against the vastness of space. This photo helps us to keep our global problems – particularly that of ‘Climate Change’ – in perspective, and reminds us that, if we are ‘Planet A’ then there is no ‘Planet B’ to fall back on should we make a complete mess of this one. In the words of Eric Idle’s famous Galaxy song, let us “pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere out in space, because there’s bugger all down here on Earth!”

We commenced the year taking a global look at general environmental sustainability issues to give perspective to our local situation. Sessions have been on a fortnightly basis this year, but still covered a wide variety of topics. We have reflected on the outcomes of the UN Paris Climate Change conference COP21 in December 2015, the terms of which have now become legally binding, and the state of the climate in 2016, and the current absence of any national plan for Australia to meet its commitments under this agreement. Electricity and energy supply have been prominent, including the required decarbonisation of the system.

We have looked at the global population problem, how the expected 9 million people might be fed (are Genetically Modified Organisms the answer?) and how (as citizens of the Anthropocene) we waste so much of the food & resources that are produced. Also, the potential benefits of bio-mimicry, how climate change is affecting major countries & continents (China, India, Africa, the Middle East, South America, Russia); the green (?) Olympic games, aviation & shipping emissions, drilling for oil in the Great Australian Bight, cleaner & healthier cook-stoves in developing countries, and finally, melting glaciers and methane emissions.

Closer to home, we have looked at the ecology of ticks, fleas, lice, mosquitoes, blue-banded bees, wasps, carp, chameleons, colour-blindness in South American monkeys, sea-potatoes, two & three-toed sloths, Asparagopsis (look it up !), the American pika, the blue petrel and other tube-nosed pelagic birds. In the immortal words of the American Indians “may the great spirit watch over you …as long as the grass grows and the water flows.”

*Account of Bairnsdale U3A lectures 2016

Peter Wadhams’ book title is a play on words from the famous Hemingway novel, as also is the last chapter of the book ‘A Call to Arms’. Wadhams is an ice expert who has spent his whole life studying ice and has made more than 50 trips to (and in the case of the Arctic, under) our polar regions.  He has been warning for some time that a summer ice free arctic ocean is approaching rapidly and is critical of the conservative ‘consensus’ projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that predict this event may not occur until 2100.  According to Wadhams this event is imminent.

In his one mathematical formula in the book Wadhams calculates the ‘equilibrium temperature’ of the earth without the greenhouse effect at -18C making the earth a ball of ice with no life possible as we know it. He then identifies carbon dioxide as the ‘villainous molecule’ in the greenhouse effect and noted “adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere inevitably causes a temperature rise.  And the more you add, the greater the temperature rise.” (p.52) As we have noted in this column many times previously Arrhenious produced the first theory and calculations of increasing carbon dioxide on the earth’s temperatures in the 1890s. The steadily rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been measured at Mauna Loa and Cape Grim for more than 50 years and is now above 400ppm and well above the pre-industrial level of 280ppm.

After examining the warming evidence Wadhams identifies a number of ‘tipping points’ in the Arctic that could lead to catastrophic warming. The overused term ‘tipping point’ has been defined by Wadhams: “the tipping point occurs when a system which has been stressed beyond a certain level does not return to its original state when that stress is removed but migrates to a new state.” (p.85) He uses the analogy of stretching and overloading a wire spring (another analogy by a friend suggests slowly pushing a full wine glass away from you until it suddenly overbalances and crashes). Of the number of tipping points Wadhams identifies he singles out two – the albedo affect and methane hydrates – with runaway ‘feedback’ consequences that, if unchecked, will be catastrophic. The tipping point to save the summer arctic ice, he notes, is well past.

In the ‘Call to Arms’ chapter Wadhams pessimistically examines a number of options including geoengineering, but makes a call for the improvement of climate science. He also calls on readers to condemn what he call the ‘black tide of denial’ of the climate sceptics.  He notes that their “insidious opposition to taking action on climate change is now being fomented by well financed groups of malevolent people and organizations. These organizations focus on planting stories in the media and persuading timid or ignorant politicians that we cannot afford to do anything about global warming, even if it actually exists”(p.199) – a position we well understand here in Oz. A Farewell to Ice is easy reading, has colour plates of maps, diagrams and photos, illustrating various aspects of the text. It should be great Xmas reading or perhaps could be a present for your favourite climate change denying uncle or politician.

I was invited to the second Sustainability Festival run by the Anglican Church at The Abbey on Raymond Island by the Reverend Edie Ashley. (see below) I motored down to Paynesville (Toonalook) on a fine spring day and parked behind the shops. I then walked the short distance to the Lake shore and boarded the vehicle ferry to take us to the island. As we crossed the hundred yards of water of McMillan Strait (named after a prominent squatter who travelled through by boat in 1842) I pondered that here was the place that the eldest son of Bungeleen, a Kurnai warrior, drowned in 1847 whilst escaping from the Native Police. On Raymond Island (named after another squatter during same boat trip) I strolled along the coastal boardwalk for 10 minutes or so to arrive at The Abbey.

The Abbey is comprised of a collection of buildings including a large A frame hall and kitchen, a historic church and other buildings in a beautiful, picturesque setting of low lying land, beside Lake Victoria. There were various organisations and bodies on display in a large adjacent open space including the CFA, East Gippsland Shire, Mine Free Glenaladale and the Renewable Energy Trailer of Ian Southall and various activities were organised for young and old. Aside from general interest my purpose in being there was to introduce the keynote speaker Dr Scott Power of the BOM talk on climate change. (see below) Following Scott’s successful and highly informative power point lecture, attended by about 60 people, my U3A ‘Environmental Sustainability’ lecturer Alistair Mailer asked a tongue in cheek question about the Abbey flooding following sea level rise which brought quite a few laughs. He later pointed out that there was a serious side to his question.

Afterwards I wandered around chatting to various people including Ian Southall. Ian and I had a long discussion on the progress, design and pricing of batteries in the current ‘clean disruption’. For 30 years the electricity supply for my house had been wind and solar with the energy stored in lead acid deep cycle batteries. These were second-hand, cumbersome, required continuous maintenance and daily check-ups and were relatively expensive. The lithium-ion developments and other technologies are truly revolutionary. I also spent some time chatting with East Gippsland Shire Environmental Officer Rebecca Lamble and her assistant with their table set under a stately gum tree. A few metres above us a Koala with offspring on her back shuffled through the branches.

By midday I was starting to tire (my day starts at first light) and decided to forgo the bus trip to revegetation sites on the island with Landcare organiser Paul Harvey. But before departing just outside the A frame a photographer was busy taking images of what appeared to be an ordinary eucalypt. On closer inspection I noted a Tawny Frogmouth perched low down in the branches. “Two adults and two juveniles” I was told. Whilst waiting for the new arrivals to leave the ferry before boarding I met and chatted briefly with Beth Ripper, former Wellington Shire Mayor, chair of the Gippsland Climate Change Network and a very distant cousin. Heading home after such an eventful and pleasant day it occurred to me that there are ‘magic moments’ even for someone involved in the often tedious occupation of ‘climate activist’.

Agriculture has the ability to absorb in the soil many times the amount of carbon it emits, and to take in a large proportion of the carbon dioxide emissions of other industries. Soil is the great reservoir for carbon – currently soils contain more than four times the amount of carbon than all above ground vegetation holds. Soils can increase their carbon uptake faster than vegetation and provide the fastest method of removing carbon from the atmosphere, helping delay the onset of severe climate change to give more time for phasing out the fossil fuel industries.

Not only is soil carbon sequestration of benefit in reducing greenhouse gases, it is the key to production and profitability of agriculture. Most modern farming practices however actively deplete soil carbon; a complete reorientation of farming is essential to reverse the process, and farmers need assistance to make that happen. One estimate shows a loss of 60% of soil organic carbon in the top 10 cm of soil in the Australian wheat belt since cropping began.

Soil organic carbon is made up of labile carbon (decomposed and decomposing roots, plant matter, microbial biomass, manure, dead animals), humus and charcoal. Labile carbon mostly reverts to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide within 6-18 months, because of respiration by soil life and oxidation by the sun. It is very valuable though, as it feeds microbes, releases nutrients to the soil, and holds moisture. A small proportion of labile carbon is converted to humus, often only about 1%.

Humus and charcoal are stable forms of carbon, lasting for decades or centuries. Humus is the most desirable form. It is largely created by fungi. A large amount of humus can be produced by mycorrhizal fungi that feed on the carbohydrates that plant roots exude.

Plants convert carbon dioxide from the air into carbohydrates using sunshine. A large proportion of these sugars, up to 40%, are passed out through the plant roots into the soil to feed mycorrhiza and other soil life. The by-product of these sugars is humus.

In pasture land the grazing practices used determine whether carbon is gained or lost from the soil. Grasses need to be allowed to grow before they are grazed – short grass struggles to feed itself with carbohydrates, let alone put some into the soil. A study done by the Rodale Institute in the USA found that organic agriculture can sequester 7.4 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare per year (using composted manure and rotations). If all the world’s 5 billion hectares of agricultural land sequestered that amount almost all of the carbon dioxide produced in a year would be taken up by the soil (37 out of 38 gigatonnes). To be sustainable and profitable, agriculture depends on soil carbon levels, and farming techniques that have decimated carbon levels are obsolete. New farming requires no poisons, no soluble fertilisers, no soil tillage and excellent grazing management.

*Alan is Vice-president of the Organic Agriculture Association, Bairnsdale.

Some years ago my wife and I downsized from our house and small acreage in the bush to a unit in town. The brick veneer unit was built in the 1980s basically to minimum building standards. In most instances these requirements and their construction have been sufficient. However in one instance – the drainage of roofs and surrounding pavement – inadequate construction has been evident for some time. Our first warning was that following thunderstorms the water spouted back up through the pavement drain instead of going down it. Also at the bottom of the downpipe beside our garage door a neat hole had been cut by a previous occupier to allow water to readily escape. This was to prevent water backing up the downpipe and overflowing the roof spouting and was obviously a reaction by the unit occupier to a previous event.

Action on this had been on my to-do list for some time but down my list of priorities. However some local flooding around a downpipe at our neighbours place required immediate attention to the problem. Outlet pipes were exposed and discovered to be blocked in several places and 2 incorrectly sited surface inlets that had disappeared under the turf over the years were uncovered. These deficiencies were fixed. But most importantly it became clear that the outlet pipes, even when functioning properly, were of insufficient size to cope with a prolonged heavy downpour. The inlet capacity was (and is) nearly 3 times the capacity of the outlet pipe for each unit. Clearly the standards for drainage of 30 years ago are no longer sufficient for today, not to mention that the drainage was both poorly constructed and designed.

Climate Change predictions for East Gippsland are that it will receive less rainfall and that the rain it does receive will be in fewer, but heavier, rainfall events – a recipe for flash flooding. It is fairly obvious that minimum maintenance is required for most of the systems that support our existence, something that is often neglected in this era of ‘privatising’ everything.  Likewise reactive politics (the status quo) often waits until something goes badly wrong before taking any action to solve or fix the problem. Planning to cope with a range of possible, but predictable, outcomes is nowhere to be found. Or worse still the status quo ignores or denies, for example, the fact that the damage from severe weather events may be climate change related and is thus unable to adopt mitigation or adaptation strategies. In the meantime we will observe whether our recent (and the previous) modifications will enable us to cope with the next heavy rainfall event.

The extraordinary, brief article (above) published more than 100 years ago (1912) in country New Zealand did the rounds of the social media about a month ago. It deserves far more prominence and publicity than it has received. In 4 sentences and 61 words it encapsulates the physics of the greenhouse effect and the law of the conservation of mass and that the profligate manner humanity is burning fossil fuels posed a threat to the earth’s future climate.

One wonders why the huge Murdoch news empire (and other media multinationals) has yet to grasp the essence of climate change, when the Rodney and Otamatea Times and Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette pioneered the way even before Rupert’s father Keith had established himself as a competent journalist. Andrew Bolt of the Peoples Paper, or any other of the mercenary hacks from the Oz, need only to consult Wikipedia to find that Joseph Fourier discovered the ‘greenhouse effect’ nearly 200 years ago (his maths indicated the earth should have been about 30 degrees cooler than it was) or that an English chemist James Tyndall in 1857 identified carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane as the major greenhouse gases or that a Swede, Svante Arrhenious in 1895, calculated how much the temperature of the earth would rise if the CO2 was doubled. The answer is of course that it does not suit their, and in particular their masters’, political agenda.

There are other examples of political agendas that don’t coincide with physics and natural laws that eventually succumb to fact. Those commonly cited include Galileo’s discovery of the organisation of the solar system, or the shape of the earth. In primary school we were told the story of King Canute who had his throne placed on the seashore and foolishly commanded the tides to stop – the same approach as the Murdoch media and a large proportion of our politicians on climate change. I much prefer that Canute was a wise king, demonstrating clearly to his followers that, all powerful as he was in human matters, he could not stop the tides.

There can be no doubt that Murdoch, his minions political and otherwise, are wrong and that their efforts will eventually, in the long run, amount to nothing. Unfortunately as JM Keynes noted we are ‘all dead in the long run’, and the damage that can be (and has already been) done by the politically powerful in the meantime is horrendous. In the years following the war the Peoples Paper had dual uses; after being read it then migrated to the outhouse where it was used again. Even treating the rubbish dished up by the Murdoch press in the latter occupation is too generous and you obviously can’t wipe your bum with a television set. Which leads us back to how wonderful the news snippet produced in that NZ country paper really is. It shames the all-powerful Murdoch media which should be treated with the same contempt that it accords basic physics.

It’s official: average global CO2 concentration has hit 400ppm. Global warming is locked in for the foreseeable future, largely caused by burning fossil fuels, particularly coal; we can expect more heat waves, wild weather, drought and bushfires. Under the Paris agreement Australia is committed to play its part to keep global temperature well below 2 degrees. Climate denial argument is counterproductive and will not stop changes which are about to occur in Latrobe Valley.

Engie, the world’s largest electricity company and owner of Hazelwood, is exiting coal and building renewables.   Worksafe has declared parts of the 50 year old Hazelwood power station to be unsafe and we await Engie’s imminent decision about Hazelwood’s future. It will not be the first or the last power station to close. In light of the 400ppm climate milestone, both the federal and state governments must urgently work together to formulate and enact a transition plan for affected coal communities, and hopefully will do better than in Port Augusta where  400 jobs were lost with little replacement. With forethought, investment in new economic activity should already be in place in Latrobe Valley.

The Victorian government has allocated $40 million for a Latrobe Valley Transition Fund. Minister Wade Noonan recently stated that the government is interviewing ‘investment facilitation specialists’ to get out and network, to work with local business and try to attract new opportunities into the region’ and expected these people will commence in coming months. Is there any urgency indicated?   $1.2 million of the fund has been spent on an abattoir in Trafalgar, and more on a new building. Allocation of $40 million has been extended into wider Gippsland. How much will be left over to support the central Latrobe Valley area, where unemployment is already above state average?

Environment Victoria is taking the problem seriously and has published Life After Coal, listing 5 employment opportunities: residential energy efficiency retrofitting, commercial building energy efficiency, Voices of the Valley’s State Energy Transition Centre, a sustainable pre-fabricated housing construction industry and solar hot water manufacture. Earthworker’s solar hot water co-operative has already relocated to Morwell, but is struggling to get government support to commence operations. Latrobe Valley expects that government transition funds will be used in Latrobe City for employment security and community security, and I call on politicians, unions, academics, local business and the community to seize the opportunities which the inevitable energy transition will offer.

(Letter in LV Express 31.10)

The Sustainability Festival held at the Abbey on Raymond Island was quite impressive. Top of the bill was the power-point talk by Dr Scott Power of the BOM entitled ‘Global Changes Global Actions, Local Impacts’. Having someone as highly qualified as Scott to speak was quite an achievement in itself. You can watch a brief video of him here.

His CV is most impressive and is as follows: “Dr Scott Power is the Head of Climate Research and the International Development Manager in the Bureau of Meteorology. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group (IPCC) report and an author of the latest IPCC Working Group 3 Synthesis Report. Scott has published extensively in the international scientific literature on global warming, El Niño, decade-to-decade climate variability, Pacific climate, and historical changes in severe weather. He is the former head of operational climate monitoring and prediction in the Bureau and a former acting head of Australia’s National Climate Centre. He previously coordinated the Bureau’s participation in the Australian Climate Change Science Program, he led the development of a project to enhance climate prediction services in numerous Pacific Island countries, and he co-led the development of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program that assisted 15 vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.”

Scott’s presentation emphasized climate variability which will still be with us as the planet warms though extreme cold events like frosts will be far fewer. He gave a fairly detailed explanation of the greenhouse effect and then looked at a range of the evidence for a warming climate which was conclusive. He started with a graph of the carbon dioxide (CO2) – the major greenhouse gas – in the ice records for 800,000 years and to these he added the recent extra additions since the Industrial Revolution to produce the so called ‘hockey stick’ graph.  He praised the climate models that are used to make the various predictions and although they are not perfect they are the best we have at the moment. On climate action he also praised the results of the recent Paris Conference (signed but yet to be ratified by Australia – hopefully it will not be a repeat of Kyoto) which has just gone into effect, as one of the beneficial actions. But he pointed out that to achieve the aims of the Paris conference was going to be difficult. At some stage we not only have to reduce putting CO2 into the atmosphere but to draw it down to a level closer to what we have experienced in the last 10,000 years.

Following the talk there was a wide range of questions on methane as a greenhouse gas, CO2 as a result of forest burning, about the earth’s albedo and whether the Abbey would be going under water soon. The latter brought a lot of laughs from the audience. Scott adroitly fended off questions of a political nature pointing out that his role as a bureaucrat was to provide the information and not to take political sides (another casualty of the unnecessary political division). Attended by 60 people Scott’s talk alone has made this year’s Festival an outstanding success.

Tired after regularly standing as a candidate in elections over the last 8 years I only decided at the last moment to stand again in local council elections. My earlier Federal Election campaign had been both exhausting and a financial disaster. So I decided to run a low key, low cost campaign. The latter part was easier as beyond my deposit expenditure was nil. Also I put out a single press release compared with more than a dozen at the Federal Election. The release disappeared although it may have got some column inches in the Bairnsdale Advertiser. The social media was my only other outlet.

I ran a ‘modest’ 200 word promo for the postal ballot pack emphasizing community energy projects and the path to 100% renewable energy. I also mentioned my previous ‘Vote Climate Vote Solar’ campaigns and noted that only one other candidate – Catherine Pirrie of Mallacoota – mentioned climate change. When the number of candidates was declared, originally 40 but then 39, it became obvious that only a small fraction of the electorate was going to read the 8000 odd words from candidates in the ballot pack. The drawing of the ballot, where I was placed in the lower middle of the Melbourne Cup bunch confirmed that the odds for me of even polling decently were very long. This was compounded by the fact that there was some big money being expended on the campaign.

My sole media release asked all the candidates to sign a ‘Science Pledge’. Basically it wanted (and wants) decisions to be based on science and evidence and not on personal opinion, political objectives, ideological positions or economic interests. The pledge was signed by six candidates including yours truly. Unfortunately they all received between 1% and 3% of the vote and none were elected. It may be opportune to try the new councillors with the pledge again. At least two appear sympathetic.

Of the elected members Ben Buckley of Benambra got the ‘larrikin’ vote and easily topped the (formal) poll. This was quite predictable as he had been featuring on the front page of the local papers for the last 2 months. Unfortunately he has still to come to grips with the climate issue and like most of the others elected fails to understand the greenhouse effect. (In this he is no different from our state and federal representatives.) Top of the large field was the informal vote at 12.5% followed by the larrikin and the donkey vote; obviously it’s time for the introduction of optional preferences.

It is also clear that the vast majority of the local population have no idea of the impending climate disaster we are facing. The status quo, the lack of science education and the power of a bland media remains omnipotent. I suspect even few strong climate change sympathisers have any idea of what awaits us – as early as this summer but definitely within the next 10 or 15 years. It has become quite obvious that my election candidacy over the last 8 years has had minimal impact. It is time to redirect my energy and limited finances through other channels.

Perfect weather greeted us for our Sustainability Festival. The Abbey is an initiative of The Anglican Church in Gippsland –an expression of its commitment to care for the environment and a recognition of the important connection between environment, spirituality and personal wellbeing. The Abbey facilities currently include the A Frame building, with its large dining/meeting area and its commercial kitchen, eight newly rebuilt motel units, one three bedroom cottage, four and eight bed dorms, conference room, and chapel. The Abbey is for all people.  Individuals and groups are invited to book The Abbey for meetings, community gatherings, weekend conferences or family celebrations.

The Sustainability Festival is one of the activities of The Abbey Program – a series of occasional retreats, events, gatherings or festivals. The Festival brought together practitioners and interested people, families and older people – from the local area and further afield. It was a time of meeting and exchanging ideas, of finding resources that match a need or of offering expertise for a particular situation. It was a time of learning, encouragement and festivities.

Opening the day, Scott Power spoke on the science of climate change to a crowded room of interested people. He pointed out that while all models show an increase in average global temperature climate over the next few years, some show greater increase than others and unless we act now to reduce emissions, the rate of change may increase exponentially into the future – and the children of today and their children will be left to carry the cost.

While Scott was speaking, children and some parents were exploring the lakes edge with Erin from Bugblitz. They enjoyed finding the little creatures in the water, catching and counting them, checking them under the microscope, and just getting their feet wet!

The day went quickly with Paul Harvey from the Landcare Network and Rob Wright from the Raymond Island group showing eager participants the amazing regen work that has been accomplished by Landcare on Raymond Island.  Ian Southall from Ecohub Alternate Energy shared information and conversation on Community Energy, and Andy Booth from Gippsland Plains Conservation Management Network highlighted the importance of habitat for birdlife in the local area. Not just talk, Andy demonstrated his skill at climbing and installing bird boxes as he scaled one of the beautiful red gums at The Abbey.  And as if on cue, the koala and its baby that had been resting in the tree relocated itself to explore the recently installed bird box.

There were stalls, and information booths, the CFA was there with their trucks to delight children and interested adults, there was the pedal bike milkshake maker, face painting and kid’s corner, East Gippsland Shire Council’s waste management information table, Landcare video and colouring, recycled clothes, home crafted beeswax products, books and cards, plants and raffles…. and wonderful food in the ‘pop-up cafe’ – thanks Ian and the volunteers from St Peter’s by the Lake.  ‘Thanks to everyone who came to The Abbey Festival, to those who participated on stalls and especially to those who shared their knowledge and expertise. Thanks to East Gippsland Shire Council who sponsored the Festival and for donations from Narkoojee and Feast on East. It was a great day!’