Gippsland Climate News

(an edited version first published in Bass Coast Post 17.8)

A recent survey commissioned by Sustainability Victoria found that over 90 per cent of respondents believe humans are contributing to climate change and that all individuals should take action. Arguments for climate change action are compelling and urgent but too often the doom and gloom scenario leads to avoidance behaviour rather than action. We need an approach that empowers everyone to act. “Think globally, act locally” is the environmental enabling statement. It means not waiting for the Federal Government to do their job but planning and acting at community level. That’s exactly what’s happening here in the Bass Coast community.

The Totally Renewable Phillip Island project has been created by concerned people who have come together to make Phillip Island carbon neutral by 2030. They plan to pursue this through increasing renewable energy uptake, lobbying for charge points for electric vehicles, supporting locally produced food and eliminating food waste…

Residents at Cowes and Silverleaves concerned about severe coastal erosion have also banded together to agitate for action. The old rock wall built decades ago was never completed, and the gap focuses the wave attack and is causing severe erosion. There has been some band-aid work by Council but there is a need to fill in the “missing link” in the wall. Discussion is occurring between ministers at different levels of government and there is optimism that the State Government will consider a longer-term solution.

People feel they have a voice and there is now open discussion on sea level rise. These groups are empowered by their own actions. They are respectful but determined and will make a difference. I recall complaining about the absence of action from the Federal Government at a Coastal Councils Conference – I was told by another delegate that that’s why we and the community need to be the leading edge of this battle. We should expect leadership at federal level but waiting for that will spell disaster for our children and their children…

Council has introduced environmentally sustainable design for council buildings, an excellent step that needs to be replicated across the whole community. It is also retrofitting solar panels to council buildings, most recently on Wonthaggi’s Union Theatre. While we must urgently cut our emissions, more is required. Scientists are talking about the drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere. Council’s plan requires a 1.5 per cent annual increase in vegetation cover and great progress is being made through groups such as Landcare. Nearly 400,000 plants will be planted in Bass Coast in 2018, increasing the vegetation cover by 1.6 per cent.

On Phillip Island soil sequestration champion Bob Davie has done excellent work on soil carbon storage. Recently Professor Tim Flannery talked about the potential role of seaweed production and deep sea sequestration. A recent program on Radio National’s Big Ideas discussed the emerging role of algae as feedstock, a replacement for plastic and fossil fuels and also to sequester carbon.

Community action is heartening and vital. There is another powerful way the community can assert itself and that’s through the ballot box. The policy around climate change and renewable energy has been clouded and obstructed for 11 years by people with an interest in the fossil fuel industry holding back cleaner, cheaper renewable energy. Councils and communities can see it. They’re not waiting for the Federal Government but are already taking action – for the sake of their children and their children’s children.

*Michael Whelan is a Bass Coast councillor.

It has been a general prognosis of climate change theory for many years that as the planet warms our fire seasons will become longer and we will experience more frequent large and severe bushfires. Clearly these predictions are now being fulfilled.

The fire last week at Cape Conran is the first bushfire of consequence in living memory to occur during winter.  The current bushfire declaration in NSW is the earliest ever and the CFA is issuing warnings that fire bans may be introduced in September. Last year the early November fire at Cann River was itself an extension of the bushfire season and we had the situation of major fires in the northern and southern hemispheres.

This year the fire season ended with damaging fires at Tathra in March. Now we have the fire in August at Cape Conran as the first of our winter bushfires giving an extended fire season of 8 to 9 months. The devastating bushfire in California last December whilst Cann River fire was still burning was the first time the fire seasons of the northern hemisphere and Gippsland overlapped. Now with Cape Conran and a multitude of blazes across the northern hemisphere it has happened again. The tradition of fire fighters from Australia helping western North America during their fire season and reciprocated here during ours may soon be a thing of the past.

An article by ABC journalist Nicole Asher on the Cape Conran fire and the possibility of fire bans being brought in next month noted “the season looked like it would be the worst in a decade” and that fire restrictions will be imposed in Gippsland in September and go through to April. The severe dry conditions in the region are noted but the article does not mention the obvious influences of climate change – warmer, dryer, less soil moisture.

As with the extended fire season the increased frequency of major fires is also becoming obvious. Major fires last century occurred in 1939 and 1983 at about 40 year intervals. This century so far we have had major fires in 2003, 2006/7 and 2009 at so far roughly 6 year intervals and with a very close (and obvious) correlation with the drier times. The largest fires in area recorded have both been this century – 2003 and 2006/7. These fires also burned for the longest period of time – over 2 months. In terms of fatalities Black Saturday is the sad winner followed by Black Friday (1939) and Ash Wednesday (1983).

When coupled with the problem of inertia and the lack of action by governments worldwide we can safely conclude that our fire season will soon be all year round and that fire emergencies and other related problems such as severe droughts, possible food shortages, along with other unknown outcomes will eventually lead to the adoption of climate emergency governments.

Hydrogen has certainly been in the news in Gippsland the last few months. In this column there have been two articles on the partially government funded coal to hydrogen pilot plant (see here and here ), an article on the chemistry of the process, another  on the Carbon Capture and Storage from the process at Golden Beach, and one on the proposed use of Hastings as a ‘hydrogen port’.

Recently there has been substantial publicity on CSIRO technological advances to convert ammonia to hydrogen. An ABC article highlighted that this would make the hydrogen powered car cycle much safer and user friendly. Another in the Melbourne Age linked this to the Coal to Hydrogen Gippsland Plans. The ABC article made much of the fact that this combustible fuel could now be produced and transported as benign ammonia and converted to the combustible hydrogen at point of use. However there are several aspects of this that the media may have missed.

One is that coal is not necessary to the process, that the ammonia can be readily produced by renewable energy anywhere where it has access to water and air. Long-time advocate of ammonia as a transportable form of hydrogen retired CSIRO scientist Barrie Pittock wrote “It is great news. The technological revolution is upon us. And we will see renewables taking over rapidly. There are already at least two major hydrogen/ammonia projects started in the Pilbara and north of Adelaide. Fossil fuels are rapidly becoming a stranded asset, and just as well! So much for the NEG – it is almost irrelevant now.”

The other question is the relevance of this process is to automobiles. In this instance it would seem that the electric vehicle (EV) has already won the race. The EV has so many advantages over the internal combustion engine (including hydrogen powered ones) such as longer life, reduced maintenance and home and solar charging. And the cost of transporting electrons is miniscule compared to that a liquid or gas fuel.

The hydrogen powered vehicle in which several Japanese car makers have invested so heavily looks to be doomed. That does not mean that the CSIRO technical advances have been wasted. There must be many situations where hydrogen remains the cheapest and most suitable fuel. For example as back-up for medium to large scale generators, some industrial processes and possibly even aspects of transport such as shipping.

Despite the tardiness shown by the National Party and our elected members to renewable energy the good news is the region of Gippsland is progressing rapidly with the adoption of solar energy. By exactly how much we are progressing is not known and may not be for some time. There are at least 2 solar farms on the drawing board at Wonthaggi and Maffra, with the former scheduled to come on line next year. As well there are solar bulk buy schemes operating across Gippsland shires the organisation and application of which will extend well into next year.

But it is the behind the meter installations which are making the biggest difference at the moment. The East Gippsland shire has been progressively installing solar panels on their libraries and other buildings. It is unfortunate that due to a Heritage ruling the main library in Bairnsdale is not part of that plan. Hopefully this will be resolved in the near future.

Publicity in the social media by leading Gippsland panel installers Gippsland Solar indicates that the behind the metre installation of solar PV is booming. They have just announced that 1.3 megawatts will be installed on 8 Hospitals and health centres across Gippsland. As well they recently installed 100 kilowatts on Dwyers Toyota in west Bairnsdale. It is behind the meter installations of this sort that are the big unknown and there can be little doubt that as business energy bills climb solar will become increasingly attractive. Solar production is a good match with daytime business.

Unfortunately wind has lagged well behind solar. The Star of the South offshore wind project is currently waiting for various approvals but on its own could offset the loss of one of the valley generators. The project plans at least in part to make use of the valley infrastructure. It seems that the wind projects in parts of western Victoria are being constrained by the carrying capacity of the mains power lines. Those in the valley are underutilised and this remains one of its advantages yet to be exploited. Why for instance couldn’t the Hazlewood Pondage be turned into a floating solar farm along the lines advocated by engineer Chris Barfoot?

The solar revolution is happening now, and will happen quickly, regardless of opposition from certain political quarters. It would even occur more quickly and seamlessly if they were sympathetic or supportive.

The effect of the earth’s climate belts migrating pole-wards as a result of climate change was outlined recently in a publication of this on Australian wheat production. More specifically it has been mentioned by Barrie Pittock in his blog on the Gippsland coast and the entrance to the lakes. The general thesis is that as the earth warms the tropical and subtropical belts expand pushing the temperate zones and in particular the westerly winds further south. We note however there are a number of complicating factors such as El Nino or La Nina events, or our mountain range, that may alter or disturb this.

Barrie Pittock noted “In short it is that the mid-latitude westerlies are moving further South with global warming, and thus the prevailing westerly winds across Bass Strait are weakening and there are more frequent easterly winds there, and waves from the east also.” In terms of rainfall it is the westerly and south westerly winds that provide the regular rainfall in the region although some parts of the district are in rain-shadow. So that we would expect, and probably are already experiencing, longer and more frequent dry spells with this aspect of climate change. This will affect the whole of southern Australia including the west.

Barrie also noted that an increase in the easterly winds and it is from the winds in this quarter, usually as part of a blocking low pressure system, that Gippsland receives it heaviest rainfall and is often the cause of flooding. To this can be added the fact that our ocean is warming, and quite probably being increasingly influenced by the East Australian Current. As well with each degree of warming, roughly what Gippsland has experienced in the last 50 years, a further 7% of moisture can be held in the atmosphere, leading to heavy rainfall.

Thus we are left with the apparent paradox that with our westerlies drifting to the south we will experience more, and more severe, droughts and at the same time experience more frequent and heavier floods. Anecdotally a combination of the two, as occurred in the upper Tambo River in 1998 where floods followed a short sharp drought, can be most devastating. A reverse of this with the heavy rain followed by the long dry will make the district most prone to bushfires.

Barbara Kingsolver’s Flight Behaviour* (faber and faber, 2012) is another Cli-Fi novel I have recently read. Set in the southern Appalachians the central character Dellarobia is an uneducated, restless, churchgoing, small farmer’s wife. She discovers an abnormal winter roosting of Monarch Butterflies on the family’s forested land which quickly becomes a community and media sensation.

All the while the weather is acting strangely with continuous unseasonal rains and warmth.  Eventually Dr. Ovid Byron, the Monarch Butterfly scientist comes to the farm and sets up a laboratory to study them. Even so climate change is not mentioned until about halfway through the novel when Ovid states: “We are seeing a bizarre alteration of a previously stable pattern,” he said finally. “A continental system breaking down. Most likely, this is due to climate change.” (p.228)

Much of what follows has Dellarobia on a steep learning curve on science and climate change. Worried about the survival of the butterfly she is told: “That is a concern of conscience,” he said. “Not of biology. Science doesn’t tell us what we should do. It only tells us what is.”’ (p.320) and “There are always more questions. Science as a process is never complete. It is not a foot race, with a finish line. He warned her about this, as a standard point of contention. People will always be waiting at a particular finish line: journalists with their cameras, impatient crowds eager to call the race, astounded to see the scientists approach, pass the mark, and keep running. It’s a common misunderstanding.” (p.351)

Even Black Saturday gets a mention when Ovid is describing some of the devastating effects of climate change: “Walls of flame, Dellarobia. Travelling the land like freight trains, fed by dead trees and desiccated soil. In Victoria hundreds of people burned to death in one month, so many their prime minister called it hell on earth. This has not happened before. There is no evacuation plan.” (p.278)

Throughout the book the author highlights two of the major problems associated with climate change – persuading, educating a skeptical, uninformed or misinformed citizenry and misreporting by the media.  The TV journo asked: “Dr. Byron, let’s talk about global warming. Scientists of course are in disagreement whether this is happening, and whether humans have a role.” Ovid’s eyebrows lifted in a familiar way, almost amused. “I’m afraid you have missed the boat, Tina. Even the most recalcitrant climate scientists agree now, the place is heating up. Pretty much every one of the lot. Unless some other outcome is written on the subject line of his paycheck.” (p.366)

Like science the novel is open ended, with Dellarobia struggling through flooding paddocks of her farm watching the bright coloured reflections of the butterflies in the water – “a merging world of flame and flood.”

*Copy available in the East Gippsland Shire Library

 

Letter published in Gippsland Times 31/7

I write to express my dismay and disapproval of the current performance of both our State and Federal members of parliament on clean energy and climate change. I recently wrote to both offering to discuss the complex issues involved in an open and ‘amicable’ manner. Neither have bothered to reply.

The National Party have been championing coal for some time and have been calling for new, clean coal fired power stations to be built with public money. There is no such thing as clean coal and these power stations are dependent on carbon, capture and storage (CCS) another unproven and uneconomic technology. If in the most unlikely event that any one of these stations is built it will be a ‘stranded asset’ and an enormous drain on our country’s finances. Similarly the Nationals support for the coal to hydrogen project is also dependent on CCS.

They remain silent on the potential destruction of farmland by Coal Seam Gas. Has Mr Bull expressed an opinion on an issue many his landholding constituents consider vital? We are also bombarded with scare tactics on energy pricing and clean energy. One example of this I recall was Mr Chester claiming we would be $500 better off when the carbon tax was abolished. Perhaps we should be comparing our power bills then and now?

Both Mr Bull and Mr Chester also remain silent on the alternatives to coal –solar, wind, batteries, high voltage direct current connecting cables and an electrified transport system, even pumped hydro – which could have substantial benefits for our communities. Mr Chester did make a speech at the opening of the Gippsland Solar electric vehicle charging station in Traralgon in 2016 and go for a ride in a Tesla but as far as I am aware he has done nothing else on this and similar matters. The fact remains that many rural communities are benefiting from the growth of clean energy and many farms are being drought-proofed. Gippsland, with a few exceptions, is missing out.

Whilst Mr Chester is silent on climate change his position on coal shows clearly he either denies or disregards it. Perhaps he is a closet member of the Monash Forum? Mr Bull appears to grudgingly accept that it is happening but like many Gippslanders suggests that it is natural. This again is demonstrably incorrect and disempowers people as they believe they can do nothing about it. Close to all qualified climate scientists (97.5%) accept that climate change is man-made and happening now. This means that extreme weather events like floods, droughts, heatwaves, and bushfires are already being made more frequent and more severe in a warming Gippsland.

By championing coal our representatives are denying the laws of physics – they may as well claim the earth is flat, or there is no such thing as gravity. One assumes that they use computers, mobile phones and many of the other benefits modern science and medicine have endowed us with. Choosing which science you like and ignoring that you don’t like is not an option.

Mr Bull and Mr Chester may see fit to ignore both possible damage caused by climate change and the benefits that clean, decentralised energy can bring to their communities. But surely they will not ignore the harm that will eventually extend to their own families if nothing is done. In the long run science and physics will always defeat politics and the current position of our local members is absurd.

(first published in the Bass Coast Post 20.7)

THE Westernport Peninsula Protection Council’s award for the stupidest idea of 2018 goes to Daniel Andrew and Malcolm Turnbull for their plan to turn brown coal into hydrogen and export it out of Hastings (for an earlier blog on this see here ed.). Kawasaki, J Power and Iwatani propose to export hydrogen gas from Hastings made from Loy Yang’s brown coal. This involves partially burning brown coal at Loy Yang.

It takes 160 tonnes of brown coal to make one tonne of hydrogen, using water to scrub the carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulphides, and methane out of the emissions, and pumping it underground after finding a location and method of sequestrating first. It involves getting the hydrogen gas to Hastings then converting it to liquid in a new plant by freezing to below minus 250 degrees, building a new port to export it, including massive dredging of millions of cubic metres of bay bed, shipping the liquid hydrogen to Japan and converting it back to gas.

Four industrial processes and three journeys … The first criterion for the award for stupidity is that a fool doesn’t learn from their own mistakes. Exporting woodchips to Japan has to be the most regrettable thing our State Government has done, let alone allowing our timber industry to be woodchip driven. Ballast water from Japanese ships have brought the Northern Pacific Seastar, which has infested the woodchip ports of Derwent estuary and Phillip Bay, devastating the fish stocks. We don’t have the seastars here in Western Port and we don’t want them.

The next criterion of the stupidity award was pretending brown coal use is green. We, the citizens of Victoria, thought we were stepping away from using brown coal because of climate change. Make no mistake: burning brown coal for energy at Loy Yang would be far less damaging than this stupid plan. The third criterion for the stupidity award is not reading your own reports.

Infrastructure Victoria ruled out Western Port as an option for a container port because it would take 23 million cubic metres of dredging. As the area of Western Port is 680 square kilometres, this is equivalent to digging up the entire bay to a depth of 3.4 metres – above ceiling height. Of course it is deeper depths in a smaller area but it is far too much material to pass environmental laws. Seagrass could not grow to the new depths required, leading to ongoing erosion (in our fast tides), turbidity and death.

That amount of dredging would result in coastal inundation. Nine groups endorsed Bass Coast Shire Council’s principle: No capital dredging in Western Port Bay. Western Port cannot host a new port for commercial-scale ships, it is too shallow. The hydrogen gas ships for the long-term proposal are of deep draught.

The last criterion for the award is the amount of money being wasted. The Kawasaki project gets top marks with nearly $500 million, $50 million each from the state and federal governments for the trial alone. This doesn’t include finding ways to sequester the coal smoke water. Latrobe Valley deserves sustainable job creation, not another failed project. Every level of government recognises it as fragile and valuable internationally. People who scuba dive say the bay is healthier and more diverse than most places around the world now.

Western Port is worth billions every year in its healthy state, and is too precious to lose. The economy of this area depends on it being a recreational area with the associated health benefits. Here we are today, beach goers, sailors, scuba divers, residents, holiday house owners, ecotour operators, marine educators, school camp operators, restaurateurs, surfers, snorkelers, dog walker, fishers, paddlers and boaters. We love Western Port and will fight for it!

Earlier in the year I wrote a short article on the downsides of producing Hydrogen gas from our coal reserves and then shipping the hydrogen overseas as an export product. The process involved carbon dioxide as the main by-product which was to be sequestered underground in rock-capture domes. This dubious storage mechanism is like a time bomb for future generations when, albeit possibly a long time, it will inevitably escape to the atmosphere creating a massive pollution problem!

Now we have Australian Paper planning a $600 million incinerator next to its paper mill at Maryvale with the idea of producing electricity for its mill and the state power grid from Melbourne’s rubbish.

However, it must be recognised that the problems of this idea remain similar to the commercial Hydrogen project. In fact, in summary, they are even worse! The flue gases will not just contain carbon oxides and water, they will contain far more dangerous chemicals that will endanger human health as well as permanently pollute the land.

The most dangerous emissions can be caused by burning plastics containing organochlor-based substances like PVC. When such plastics are burned, harmful quantities of dioxins, a group of highly toxic chemicals are emitted. Dioxins are the most toxic to the human organisms. Winds will take these gases away where they are then deposited onto land or into bodies of water. A few of these pollutants such as mercury, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and furans persist for long periods of time in the environment and have a tendency to bio-accumulate; which means they build up in predators at the top of the food web.

Bioaccumulation of pollutants usually occurs indirectly through contaminated water and food rather than breathing the contaminated air directly. In wildlife, the range of effects associated with these pollutants includes cancer, deformed offspring, reproductive failure, immune diseases and subtle neurobehavioral effects. Humans can be exposed indirectly just like wildlife, especially through consumption of contaminated fish, meat and dairy products.

Alternative Products from Recycling: rubbish can generally be sorted into the following: Organic material for compost; Organic and bio material as a hazard; Metals; Timber; Paper, cardboard and cloth; Glass; Plastics and Brick, cement and china.

Most can be usefully recycled with the exception of babies nappies, paints and lubricants which might best be burned. Metals can be sorted to iron, aluminium and others for melting and reuse. Glass can be recycled either as whole bottles and jars or melted down to produce further glass products. Organic material for compost might be added to the land reserved for sewerage farms for grass of crops. The three remaining materials might best be used for building materials for cheap houses- a definite need in our society!

Recycling for cheap building materials. These new materials can only be produced by government incentive and private enterprise. However, with China now no longer taking our rubbish, we must be imaginative and creative to produce recycled products of use to society and avoiding simple solutions that create a hazard to human health and the environment. This is the better way for the future!

* Chas was a former science teacher at Swifts Creek HS.

 

 

On the southerly movement of climate systems:

“I would like to at least alert you to a real world problem, as it affects southern Australia, which for decades I have seen coming from global warming. In short it is that the mid-latitude westerlies are moving further South with global warming, and thus the prevailing westerly winds across Bass Strait are weakening and there are more frequent easterly winds there, and waves from the east also. This will have (and I think is already having) an effect on coastal erosion, quite apart from any sea-level rise. My local verification is from casual observations from some 40 years involvement in a shared holiday house at Lake Bunga, just east of Lakes Entrance and just west of the Red Bluff at the eastern end of the 90-mile beach. Over the years we have seen significant changes…”

On the dredging of the entrance:

“Early in the 21st. century the sand dredged from the entrance was disposed of by pumping it via a pipe to an outlet just offshore east of the entrance.  However, this sand piled up on the eastern side of the entrance barrier, extended the beach out past the barrier, and it started to occasionally block the entrance. This concerned me…My thoughts are that the current crisis is due to three things all climate change related:

1. Less flood flows in the rivers feeding in. This may be complicated by fires and drought leading to more riverine erosion and siltation when they do flow again.
2. As I anticipated earlier, the westerlies are trending further south, leading both to rainfall further south and less over southern Victoria, and to more easterlies along the south coast. The message I heard from the Ports people a few years back, was that the extra easterlies was just a freak of natural variability, not a long-tern trend – that is probably incorrect. The key thing here is that the pumps were dumping thousands of tons of sand east of the entrance and this is now drifting west and the beach extended to the end of the eastern groin and sand was just going around it. They needed at least to stop pumping more sand there.
3. The same trend in the westerlies is also strengthening the ocean gyres and causing the East Australian Current to push warmer water further south. This is probably also contributing to the increase in flow to the west along the south coast (even against the wind?), as the sea surface gradient is now more east to west.”

On coastal erosion and possible subsidence:

“I presume that in 2018 dredged sand from the entrance is now dumped far out to sea as it used to be, and that the entrance channel is now deeper. This may have increased the tidal flows through the entrance, but could reduce the risk from floods due to high river flows, until the sea rises further. However, I have more recently noticed some coastal erosion east of Lakes Entrance, for example some coastal dunes have eroded and old coastal tea-trees have fallen onto the beach, at places like the Lakes Entrance Golf course, and west of the entrance to Lake Tyers. There is no doubt in my mind that there is now a more westerly drift through Bass Strait due to a strengthening of the East Australian Current and more easterly winds as the planet warms.”

“There has also been rapid erosion of cliffs east of Red Bluff, which is a couple of km east of Lake Bunga, at the eastern end of the 90-mile beach. This may also be a sign of the more westerly currents and wave patterns in Bass Strait… Whether this will lead to the possibility of the sea breaking through the narrow sand dunes into the Gippsland Lakes at places other than the artificial entrance remains to be seen. (Similar effects could occur at the entrance to Port Phillip Heads and at Barwon Heads for example.)

An earlier concern of mine, prompted by my involvement at Bunga Haven, was with proposals for extraction of oil and gas from under coastal Bass Strait or the low-lying areas of southern Gippsland. This concern was about possible consolidation of sediments and subsidence, which could lead to flooding in some places.”

*compiled from recent correspondence. Barrie is a retired CSIRO scientist and author of the text Climate Change published by the CSIRO in 2009.